Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
