Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
